What is the difference between conservatism and representativeness in behavioral finance?
These two trip me up the most because they sound like opposites and the textbook examples feel interchangeable.
They are opposites, and that is what makes vignettes confusing. Both involve mishandling new information, but in different directions.
- Conservatism: the investor underweights new evidence. They cling to a prior belief even when fresh data should move it. The clue is unchanged behavior after meaningful new information.
- Representativeness: the investor overweights a small or unrepresentative sample as if it were a trend. They classify by pattern rather than base rate. The clue is over-reaction to limited data.
Imagine a stock with declining quarterly earnings:
- Conservatism: the analyst keeps the buy rating after three misses, citing the original thesis. The data has changed but the belief has not.
- Representativeness: the analyst flips to a strong sell after one disappointing quarter, calling it the start of a long decline. One quarter is being treated as the start of a trend.
The exam often pairs these with anchoring or hindsight to test whether you can untangle the underlying mistake.
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