An analyst uses the CAPM with conditioning information. An asset has beta of 0.9 in expansions and 1.5 in recessions. The market expected return is 13% in expansions and 2% in recessions. Risk-free rate is 3%. Expansions and recessions are equally likely. If the analyst instead uses the unconditional (average) beta of 1.2 and the unconditional market return of 7.5%, the unconditional CAPM expected return would be 8.4%. Compared to the properly conditioned estimate, the unconditional approach most likely: