How do I use the CAPM to estimate cost of equity, and when should I adjust beta?
I know the CAPM formula is r_e = R_f + beta x (R_m - R_f), but I'm confused about beta adjustments. My textbook mentions adjusted beta and re-levering beta. When do I use the raw beta from a regression vs. an adjusted beta? And what if the company's leverage is different from the comparables?
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) estimates a stock's required return based on its systematic risk (beta). Let's build up from the basics to the adjustments.
CAPM Formula:
> r_e = R_f + beta x ERP
where ERP = equity risk premium = E(R_m) - R_f
Worked Example — Basic CAPM:
Estimate cost of equity for Redfield Aerospace:
- Risk-free rate (R_f) = 4.0% (10-year government bond)
- Equity risk premium (ERP) = 5.5%
- Beta = 1.3
r_e = 4.0% + 1.3 x 5.5% = 4.0% + 7.15% = 11.15%
When to Adjust Beta:
1. Blume Adjusted Beta (Mean Reversion Adjustment)
Regression betas tend to revert toward 1.0 over time. The Bloomberg/Blume adjustment:
> Adjusted Beta = (2/3) x Raw Beta + (1/3) x 1.0
If Redfield's raw beta is 1.3:
> Adjusted beta = (2/3)(1.3) + (1/3)(1.0) = 0.867 + 0.333 = 1.20
Revised r_e = 4.0% + 1.20 x 5.5% = 10.60%
2. Re-Levering Beta (Hamada Equation)
When using a comparable's beta but the target has different leverage:
Step 1 — Unlever the comparable's beta:
> Beta_unlevered = Beta_levered / [1 + (1 - t) x (D/E)]
Step 2 — Re-lever at the target's capital structure:
> Beta_relevered = Beta_unlevered x [1 + (1 - t) x (D/E_target)]
Example:
Comparable (Skymark Defense) has beta = 1.4, D/E = 0.5, tax rate = 25%
Target (Redfield) has D/E = 0.8, same tax rate
Step 1: Beta_U = 1.4 / [1 + (0.75)(0.5)] = 1.4 / 1.375 = 1.018
Step 2: Beta_relevered = 1.018 x [1 + (0.75)(0.8)] = 1.018 x 1.60 = 1.629
Redfield's re-levered cost of equity = 4.0% + 1.629 x 5.5% = 12.96%
When to Use Which:
| Situation | Beta Approach |
|---|---|
| Public company with 5+ years of data | Raw beta (or Blume adjusted) |
| Private company, no trading data | Unlever comparable's beta, relever at target's D/E |
| IPO valuation | Comparable beta with leverage adjustment |
| Company recently changed leverage | Re-lever at new target D/E |
| Thinly traded / illiquid stock | Use peer group average beta (adjusted) |
Common exam mistakes:
- Forgetting the (1 - t) tax shield in the Hamada equation
- Using D/E ratios at book value when market value is appropriate
- Applying Blume adjustment AND re-levering — you typically do one or the other based on the context
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