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AcadiFi
SI
SimDeskArun2026-05-20
frmPart I / Part II bridgeMarket RiskMonte Carlo

How do I fix a Monte Carlo VaR workflow that mixes log returns and simple returns?

My simulation uses correlated log returns for each asset, but then I aggregate the portfolio as if the weighted sum were still a log return. I can tell something is off, but I am not sure where the correction belongs.

38 upvotes
AcadiFi TeamVerified Expert
AcadiFi Certified Professional

The fix is to be consistent about what object you are aggregating.

For multi-asset portfolios, the weighted sum relationship applies cleanly to simple returns, not to log returns. A safer workflow is:

  1. Simulate correlated log returns for each asset.
  2. Convert each simulated asset log return into a simple return.
  3. Aggregate asset simple returns using portfolio weights.
  4. Translate the resulting portfolio return into portfolio profit and loss.
  5. Sort losses and read the VaR percentile.

Why this matters:

  • log returns are convenient for statistical modeling
  • portfolio aggregation is naturally done on value changes or simple returns
  • skipping the conversion can bias the simulated loss distribution

If the portfolio includes options or other nonlinear products, go one step further: simulate the risk factors, reprice the instruments, and compute portfolio P&L directly instead of aggregating asset-return formulas that no longer describe the true payoff.

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