How do interest rate risk and reinvestment risk create an offsetting tradeoff for bond investors?
My CFA Level I textbook says interest rate risk and reinvestment risk 'work in opposite directions.' When rates go up, bond prices fall (bad) but reinvestment income rises (good). I get the concept abstractly, but can someone show me how these two forces actually offset each other and what that means for investment horizon?
You're absolutely right that interest rate risk and reinvestment risk create a natural tug-of-war. Understanding this tradeoff is fundamental to fixed income and leads directly to the concept of immunization.
The Core Tradeoff
Which Force Dominates? It Depends on Your Horizon.
- Short holding period (sell the bond before maturity): Interest rate risk dominates. You don't hold the bond long enough for reinvestment income to accumulate and offset a price decline.
- Long holding period (hold through maturity or beyond): Reinvestment risk dominates. You receive par at maturity regardless, so price changes don't matter — but the rate at which you reinvest coupons over many years has a huge impact.
- At the Macaulay Duration horizon: The two forces exactly offset. This is the key insight behind immunization.
Numerical Illustration — Prescott Industrial 8% Bond
Consider a 10-year, 8% annual coupon bond purchased at par ($1,000). Macaulay duration = 7.25 years.
If you plan to liquidate at exactly 7.25 years:
- Rate rise to 10%: Price at year 7.25 is lower, but you've been reinvesting coupons at 10% — the extra reinvestment income offsets the price loss.
- Rate fall to 6%: Price at year 7.25 is higher, but coupons were reinvested at only 6% — the lower reinvestment income offsets the price gain.
In both cases, your total wealth at the 7.25-year horizon is approximately the same.
Practical Implications:
- Pension funds with known liabilities use this tradeoff to immunize — match portfolio duration to liability duration.
- A barbell portfolio (short + long maturities) has higher reinvestment risk than a bullet portfolio (concentrated at one maturity) even if durations are equal.
- Zero-coupon bonds eliminate this tradeoff entirely: no coupons means no reinvestment risk, and you hold to maturity so price risk is irrelevant.
Exam Tip: CFA Level I often tests whether you understand that for an investor whose holding period equals the bond's Macaulay duration, the two risks exactly offset.
Explore immunization strategies in our CFA Fixed Income course.
Master Level I with our CFA Course
107 lessons · 200+ hours· Expert instruction
Related Questions
What exactly is the Capital Market Expectations (CME) framework and why does it matter for asset allocation?
How do business cycle phases affect asset class return expectations?
Can someone explain the Grinold–Kroner model step by step with numbers?
How do you forecast fixed-income returns using the building-blocks approach?
PPP vs Interest Rate Parity for forecasting exchange rates — when do I use which?
Join the Discussion
Ask questions and get expert answers.